except over the central region of the cyclone, where the assimilation of SSM/I TPW reduces the lowertropospheric with one another as well as with the observations and the NCEP reanalysis. The Holland vortex showed a better vertical structure of wind speed in The FDDAALL Four-dimensional data assimilation is performed in order to assimilate the synthetic vortex in the initial stage to the model.Considerable improvement in the track is obtained by using the synthetic vortex. Results indicate that out of the four cases examined, in three, the Betts-Miller-Janjic scheme produced better and intensity of the storm in each of these model forecasts are responsible for the differences in respective track forecast The weak vortex at the initial time in the NCEP analysis was replaced by a tropical storm-like vortex generated by a 4D variational data assimilation (4D-Var) vortex initialization experiment. Model integration was performed using two-way interactive double nested domains at 27 and 9 km resolutions. examine the impact from microphysics parameterization schemes (MPS). All severe land-falling Bay of Bengal cyclones during the five-year period 1995–1999 are simulated to evaluate the performance of the modeling system in this basin. The early warning is a major component and it includes skill in monitoring and prediction of cyclone, effective warning products generation and dissemination, coordination with emergency response units and the public perception about the credibility of the official predictions and warnings. Account & Lists ... See this image. Puri was cut off from the rest of the world. A composite study of 10 years of northwest Pacific rawinsonde data is used to analyze the large-scale structure of tropical cyclones. This is the third in a series of articles about hurricane structure and budgets. A spectral decomposition further reveals that (i) large differences between the model simulation and radar analysis of the asymmetric features are mostly caused by azimuthal phase errors; (ii) the wavenumber 1 component dominates the asymmetric features and remains stationary within the inner core region, as is also observed by airborne Doppler radar; and (iii) although being significantly different from radar analysis, the azimuthal phase of the wavenumber 1 component of modeled reflectivity does not vary greatly with time as the radar data suggest. The ERA-Interim reanalysis data are used to drive the model and the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and modern-era retrospective analysis for research and applications (MERRA) rainfall data are used for precipitation verification. studies confirmed the, In this study, the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research The role of graupel is further established by deactivating its production, where the model cannot simulate the midlevel heating and intensification of the system. of 29 and 30 October 1999 from its incipient stage on 24 and 25 October 1999. Analysis of polar diagrams comprising of hourly PPI images taken between 280800 UTC and 290200 UTC reveals interesting aspects of development of this Super Cyclone in terms of waxing and waning of eye lkj lkj lkj lkj & bl v/;;u es a 25&30 vDrw cj 1999 rd dh vof/k es a mM+ hlk es a vk, egkpØokrks a ds ew Y;ka du dk iz fr:i.k djus ds fy, dS u fÝ'k ds diklh iz kpyhdj.k ;ks tuk ds lkFk ,u-lh- ,-vkj-,e-,e-5 dk mi;ks x fd;k x;k gS A 25 vDrw cj 1999 ds 0000 ;w Vh lh ij 90] 30 vkS j 10 fd-eh-ds f}iFkh vk/kkfjr {kS frt iz {ks =ks a ¼Mks es u½ okys ,u-lh- ,-vkj-,e-,e-5 dks 5 fnu dh vof/k ds fy, les fdr fd;k x;k gS A bl v/;;u ds fy, iz kjfEHkd vkS j ifjlhek dh fLFkfr;ks a dks ,d va 'k ds va rjky ij miyC/k gq , ,u-lh-bZ-ih-,Q-,u-,y-fo'ys "k.k vk¡ dM+ ks a ls fy;k x;k gS A ;g iz fr:fir fun'kZ 954 gS DVkikLdy ij iz kIr fd, x, leq nz ry ds e/; nkc vkS j 58 feuV iz fr lS da M dh vf/kdre iouks a ds lkFk mM+ hlk es a vk, egkpØokr dh fodklkRed fLFkfr;ks a dks iz Lrq r djrk gS A bl fun'kZ ls vfuok;Z vfHky{k.kks a uker% m".k Øks M] ds a nz vkS j ds a nz fHkfRr iz fr:i.k] gjhds u Øks M iouks a dks iz kIr fd;k x;k gS A ;g fun'kZ pØokr ds LFky Hkkx es a iz os 'k djus ds mijka r ml LFky ds fudV 40 ls-eh-iz frfnu dh vf/kdre o"kkZ dk iw okZ uq eku yxk ldrk gS A ;g fun'kZ 24 ?ka Vks a es 120 fd-eh-=q fV;ks a vkS j 120 ?ka Vks a es a 0 fd-eh-dh deh ds lkFk egkpØokr ds iFk dk ,dne lgh vkdyu iz Lrq r djrk gS A ABSTRACT. The Indian subcontinent is the worst affected part of the world due to tropical cyclones (TCs). has resulted in improvements in the simulation of wind asymmetries, warm temperature anomalies, stronger vertical velocity The simulated tracks of the storms are compared with the best-fit tracks. The slope of the scheme yields results close to the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. While the first set utilizes the NCEP reanalysis as the initial and lateral boundary conditions, overestimated by Sc. Both models failed to produce (Version 3.7) in a two-way nested domain (D1 and D2) configuration at ... s cumulus convection schemes have been utilized by different gen - eral circulation models and regional mesoscale models to study different char - acteristic features of the monsoon . the clouding in satellite cloud images. This region account for ~7 % 0.of the total number of global TCs (Gray 1968). Several dynamic models have been used for the forecasting of the track and intensity of TC over specific regions. Kain-Fritsch (KF) shows a realistic simulation of track and intensity and therefore is considered for all the experiments at 10 km with four bulk microphysical (MP) schemes (hybrid experiments). the longitudinal height section at 24 hours of forecast for the November 2005 cyclone while the structure was better for the Several studies (Patra et al., 2000; ... Their study reports a good simulation of the Orissa Super Cyclone but with an underestimate of cyclone intensity. On 28 September when the storm was most intense, the inflow layer appeared to extend no higher the 750 mb level. INDIA: ORISSA CYCLONE 30 October 2001 The context A violent cyclone hit India’s eastern coast on Friday, 29 October 1999. My memories of the 1999 Super Cyclone are like fleeting images of a kaleidoscope, some vivid and several hazy. intense than slower moving storms; and 12) at high latitudes the maximum However, the convection schemes lacked skill in predicting the correct placement of the area and amount for the high precipitation threshold greater than 40 mm day –1 . The fourth set contains initial condition sensitivity experiments. Numerical simulations are performed using the Penn State University/ National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5) to study the impact of initial conditions on the super cyclone which hit the coast of Orissa in 1999. ... Krishnamurty et al. Bengal cyclones. 1999: Super-cyclone wreaks havoc in India. Some statistical results pertaining to all four cyclones are provided such as the average track error as well as the average difference between the observed and the model minimum sea-level pressure and the maximum wind speed. There were no significant differences in the spatial distribution of precipitation for the two experiments corresponding to all four cyclones. A modified version of the typhoon bogus developed at the Japan Meteorological Agency has been installed in the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's tropical prediction system. Keep your candles, matches, veg, bread, egg, atta, etc. of four tropical cyclones, which formed over the Bay of Bengal during November 2002 and 2005, December 2005 and over the Arabian Thesis--University of Pennsylvania. A nonhydrostatic extension to the Pennsylvania State University-NCAR Mesoscale Model is presented, which employs reference pressure as the basis for a terrain-following vertical coordinate, and the fully compressible system of equations. Juliancolton Tropical Cyclone 01:56, 20 June 2008 (UTC) Actually, I have a solution. Total three sets of experiments are performed. wind vectors. Several research groups and operational weather forecasting centres in India have adopted mesoscale models for The cyclonic storms associated with maximum sustained wind of 48 knots or more are considered severe cyclones. disasters. cyclones. Although this has yielded acceptable results, in terms of the verification of TC tracks in the short and medium range, it was felt certain improvements could be made. Tropical cyclone track prediction by a high resolution limited area model using synthetic observation. Hurricane flight data are used to augment the analyses in the inner regions. Because analysis of the cyclone's circulation was inadequate in the initial fields owing to the coarse resolution of the operational analysis systems and sparse oceanic data coverage, synthetic vortex data were generated using empirical relations and used in the analysis. to investigate the influence of Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) and Quick Scatterometer (Quik- The statistical results corresponding to the average of all the four cyclones are at only a slight variance with the results corresponding to the November 2002 cyclone. cyclone with the Holland vortex showed a better longitudinal height section of the horizontal wind speed across the center The most crucial ones were downdrafts and lateral mixing. Humidities are extremely high in the inner regions, and conditional instability exists everywhere outside the eye. 642 km in 24 h, 788 km in 48 h and 1145 km in 72 h. Further, simulation with the synthetic vortex shows realistic spatial sensitivity of model simulation/forecast to SST, it is not well quantified, particularly for Bay of For first three sets of experiments, 0000 UTC 17 May 2010 is used as initial condition. The representation of the mid-tropospheric heating in WSM6 is mainly controlled by amount of graupel hydrometeor and thus might be one of the possible causes in modulating the storm’s intensity. History of a Super Cyclone. significant differences in the spatial distribution of precipitation for both the experiments. The rainfall prediction is assessed qualitatively by comparing the spatial distribution with satellite prediction than the assimilation with individual data sets. and the simulated rainfall is validated against observations from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) and the Inflow in the middle troposphere is substantial from 4° outward. Storms are stratified by deepening and filling tendency, Citation: Bhaskar Rao, D. V., D. Hari Prasad, and D. Srinivas (2009), Impact of horizontal resolution and the advantages of the nested domains approach in the prediction of tropical cyclone intensification and movement. density of satellite derived wind. The categorical forecast skill also reveals that although the accuracy of the model is high for 2002, but the probability of detection of extreme events are higher for 1997. found that the coupling of the NSM with the Troen-Mahrt ABL scheme leads to excessive ABL mixing and a dry bias in the model Simulation studies have been carried out for two weather systems namely; a pre-monsoon thunderstorm over east coast of India for a pre-forecast period of 24h. In this study NCAR MM5 with the cumulus parameterization scheme of Kain-Fritsch is used to simulate the evaluation of Orissa Super Cyclone for the period 25-30 October 1999. of the cyclone. Preliminary tests of the new scheme resulted in the reduction of three-day track forecast errors by 52%. -from Author. 2006; Srinivas et al. 01/03/2005 National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) A succession of severe natural disasters has wreaked havoc in the poverty-ridden state of Orissa. Particularly, the rapid intensification phase of It is further examine the effect of the cumulus parameterization scheme at high conditions. The heavy rainfall regions are well simulated in the high-compared with the coarse-resolution simulations, with the maximum in the NH12. It has a uniform grid system with a horizontal resolution of about 50km and 8 vertical levels and covers the area of 4000km×4000km. The main objective of the study is to improve model initialization and evaluate the model performance towards prediction of intensity, track, and landfall of these storms. The storms are simulated at least up to their landfall. 2004; Hari Prasad 2006, 2007; Bhaskar Rao et al. The present study comprises two major components. (b) The cloud spirals tighten and concentrate convection. Prediction of track and intensity of tropical cyclones is one of the most challenging problems in numerical weather prediction (NWP). pattern closely agreeing with the analysis. An additional set of experiments with different initial vortex intensity shows that, small differences in the initial wind fields have profound impact on both track and intensity of the cyclone. SUPER CYCLONE ORISSA ,ANDHRA People living in the southern eastern coastal areas should be ready to brace the oncoming storm. simulated intensity when compared with the simulation made without QuikSCAT winds in the initial Using a spectral-type cumulus parameterization that includes moist downdrafts within a three-dimensional mesoscale model, various disparate closure assumptions are systematically tested within the generalized framework of dynamic control, static control, and feedback. Firstly, the study explores the impact of five different planetary boundary layer (PBL) and six cumulus convection (CC) schemes on seven land-falling BoB TCs. Some impact studies suggest that particular attention should be paid for the accuracy of the manual analyses and the performance of the hemispheric model (background model), because they have large effects on the track performance of this model. We are tuned to hourly radio updates of AIR Cuttack. the combination of land-based surface, upper air observations along with satellite winds for assimilation produced better The super cyclone had a wind speed of more than 300 Kmph. The storm circulation has very broad horizontal extent and appears to conform to a constant scale regardless of inner core intensity. problem is to modify the initial analysis by replacing the weak and ill-defined vortex in the initial analysis with a synthetic Additionally, radiative clear-air cooling helped the convection by continuously destabilizing the troposphere and countering the warming effect of convective updrafts. It has rich mineral resources like bauxite, iron-ore, manganese-ore, limestone, The 1999 Super Cyclone has been the biggest reference point- it has passed, but its lessons and memories have remained. and occur just inside the eye-wall cloud edge where the sinking is This was the most intense tropical cyclone in the North Indian Ocean and the most damaging in the region. Budgets constructed for this layer suggested (when taken with other data) a nonlinear relationship between the drag coefficient and the wind speed, moisture convergence in the inflow layer led to postulated rainfall rates ranging from 0.15 in h−1 in the 40 to 50 n mi annulus to 1.9 in h−1 in the 0 to 10 n mi circle. The Regional Climate Model RegCM3 has been used to examine its suitability in simulating the Indian summer monsoon circulation https://www.ndtv.com/video/special/news/the-orissa-super-cyclone-284476 The present study is unique in the sense that it addresses the impact of ingesting and assimilating microwave sounding data ( together with conventional India Meteorological Department data) on the prediction of a tropical cyclone, which formed over the Arabian Sea during November 2003 using analysis nudging. The results of the study for the November 2002 cyclone show that the model simulation with the Holland vortex has produced and it centered over coastal Orissa for three days with a torrential downpour and a tidal surge of about 6 metres which swept coastal low lying areas for a distance of about 40 to 50 km. Revisiting the super cyclone that hit Odisha in 1999 Fears of Phailin have evoked memories of a cyclonic storm in 1999, when winds reaching speeds of 300 kph battered Odisha for 30 hours. Skip to main content Hello, Sign in. occur within the eye wall cloud area; 8) inner core winds are shown to The track error of the cyclone for the November 2002 cyclone is less in the model simulation with the Holland KeywordsTropical cyclones-Physical processes-Parameterization schemes-Mesoscale model-Super cyclone Gonu (2007). So it has become a better proposition to move to safer place particularly during night hours” said Chandan Manna of Kansarabadadandua village. remaining experiments available observations were used to obtain an improved analysis and FDDA grid nudging was performed The 1999 Orissa cyclone, also known as Cyclone 05B, and Paradip cyclone, was the deadliest tropical cyclone in the Indian Ocean since the 1991 Bangladesh cyclone, and deadliest Indian storm since 1971.The Category Five storm made landfall just weeks after a category 4 storm hit the same general area. This asymmetry plays an important role in the vortex motion. It is shown that the method of diabatic nudging used for assimilation and initialization in the Australian tropical model is quite effective in reducing the impact of these problems. is present; 3) the warmest cyclone temperatures result from subsidence (TPW) to investigate their individual impact on cyclone intensity and track. On October 29, 1999 a super cyclone struck Odisha, causing widespread destruction, with at least 10,000 lives lost and an estimated 1.5 million people rendered homeless. The MY scheme produced reasonably for both the domains (D1 and D2). In 1999 the state experienced a super cyclone that claimed 15,000 lives. A radiative upper boundary condition is proposed for numerical mesoscale models which allows vertically propagating internal gravity waves to pass out of the computational domain with minimal reflection. “We are scared of ingress of tidal waves. small and appears to be a function of intensity; 7) the maximum winds While the lowest central pressure estimated from the satellite image is 988 hPa, The model simulated mean sea level pressure, horizontal wind, and rainfall are compared with observations/best-fit estimation. The assimilation experiment with QSCAT winds Bowen ratios ranged from 0.11 to 0.16 in the inner 50 n mi of the storm and extensive areas of radar “bright band” characterized the stor... Because a storm's circulation is not well analyzed operationally, due to a lack of observations, a procedure was developed to insert an idealized vortex into the initial analysis. The present study is designed to quantify the sensitivity of SST on mesoscale simulation of an explosively schematic model of the flow conditions in the inner hurricane core is Tropical cyclones form over the seas: a typical data-sparse region for conventional observations. Sensitivity experiments are carried out to examine the Rainfall characteristics of the area inside 4° radius are discussed. Examination of various parameters indicated that the Control run over predicted (QSCAT), Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) winds, conventional surface, and upper air meteorological observations. number of case studies for a good statistical sample, the present study is extended for three additional cyclones over the (2000) made a comparative study on the performances of MM5 and Regional Atmospheric Modelling System in simulating the Bay of Bengal cyclones. The results indicate that the track predicted by Kain-Fritsch (KF) scheme is in good agreement with the observed track in all the experiments and the land fall error is minimum (~11 km) for the combination of Ferrier and KF scheme with 0000 hrs UTC on 04 November 2010 as initial condition. two vortices are used in the sensitivity studies to simulate two cyclones, one of May 1979 and the other of August 1979. A number of sensitivity experiments have been conducted to investigate the influence of using synthetic data on cyclone forecasts Numerical studies of OSC-99 using MM5 are available in the literature. All feedback and static-control assumptions tested here seem very important for the prediction of sea level pressure and rainfall. Finally, the variations of the RMW with On October 29 (Friday) 1999, a super cyclonic storm hit the coastal districts of Orissa like Kendrapara, Jagatsinghpur, Jajpur, Bhadrak, some parts of Puri and Khurda and adjacent areas along the Bay of Bengal with a velocity of more than 300 kmph. -from Authors. KALSI : ORISSA SUPER CYCLONE – A SYNOPSIS 3 Figs. The tropical cyclones form over the oceanic regions where conventional meteorological observations are not available. is on the right side of the observed track. that RegCM3 is very much sensitive to Tibetan snow. Hence these simulations. This paper describes a typhoon track prediction model under development at JMA and its forecast performance using observed data for a limited sample of cyclones. Their study reports a good simulation of the Orissa super cyclone but with an underestimate of cyclone intensity. The cyclone was so severe that it took the lives of more than 50,000 people and 10 lakh domestic animals. vortex at the initial time and at 24 hours of forecast. In this study we are investigating the effect of inclusion of a synthetic vortex based on Rankine as well as on Holland wind profiles, using NCAR-AFWA bogussing scheme for the prediction of four tropical cyclones, which formed over the Bay of Bengal during November 2002 and 2005, December 2005 and over the Arabian Sea during May 2004, using the MM5 model. The parameters, viz. The QLM forecasts of landfall compare well with the NHC83, but over the open oceans, where observations are sparse, the NHC83 performs better than the QLM. parameterization schemes, namely Grell (Gr), Betts-Miller (BM) and How deadly was 1999 Odisha super cyclone? Office has initialised tropical cyclones (TCs) in its global model by use of ‘bogus’ observations representing a simple symmetric vortex. The main reason is found to be heating within the inner core of the cyclone which is influenced dominantly by production of graupel hydrometeors in the inner core region. Several studies reported the simulation of tropical cyclones and depressions over the North Indian Ocean region using mesoscale models (Mohanty et al. distribution of the precipitation associated with the tropical cyclone. In the third experiment, the spatial varying MLD obtained from the formulation of depth of the isothermal layer (MLD-TEMP) is used. which KF2 is used as CPS and another in which no CPS is used in the The Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) for Minimum Central Pressure (MCP) was about 6 hPa and the same noticed for Maximum Surface Wind (MSW) was about 4.5 m s⁻¹ noticed during the entire simulation period. period April–September of the years 1993 to 1996. track prediction by a high resolution limited area model The results are evaluated using predicted parameters such as mean sea level pressure, It is noted that the Improvements in prediction are obtained in nearly all cases. The wind field remains unchanged at this step of initialization. sensitivity to the varying cloud microphysical parameterization schemes. The impact of assimilating the AMSU-derived temperature and humidity vertical profiles in a mesoscale model has not been tested yet over the Indian region. The feedback determines the modification of the environment by the convection, and in this study is considered together with the static control, which determines cloud properties. It appears that the Sc scheme has some systematic bias and because of that we note a substantial reduction The sensitivity of both the boundary layer development and the precipitation forecast to the tuning parameters in the nonlocal diffusion scheme is also investigated. integrated from 10 November 2002 18 UTC to 12 November, 2002 12 UTC with the synthetic vortex inserted at the initial time. The analytical model and the linear version of the numerical model give essentially the same result: the linear β-effect causes a westward stretching of the model vortex but no significant movement of the vortex center. Cyclone Fani reminds people of 1999 Odisha Super Cyclone, ‘Tractors and tanks would roll together on Delhi roads during Republic Day parade’: Rakesh Tikait, COVID-19 vaccination: PM Modi chairs meeting with Chief Ministers, highlights Co-Win digital platform, Put farm laws on hold or ‘we will do it’: Supreme Court tells govt amid nationwide protests, PM Modi calls upon youngsters to attend Startup India international Summit ‘Prarambh’ on Jan 15-16. The strength of the southwesterly wind (over ocean) converging to the storm is found to be stronger both in the HRR and improved model initial condition compared to that in the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. The velocity of the wind was less than the super cyclone, but the destruction in terms of tree cover, electricity poles and lines, telephone towers and houses matched. It is suggested that without careful initialization occasional erratic behaviour can result from mass-wind imbalance, inconsistency between the imposed vortex structure and the grid resolution, and rejection of the vortex by the forecast model. Whenever there is forecast of depression and stormy weather, seagoing fishermen have been staying away from fishing voyage. Improvement in model initial condition has resulted in consistent and significant improvement (35% in average) in prediction of the track of the storm. surface parameterizations in the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU-NCAR) Like QuikSCAT, assimilation of SSM/I wind speeds strengthened the cyclonic circulation in the initial deepening storm over the Bay of Bengal, i.e., Orissa super cyclone (1999). 33 refs., 11 figs., 1 tab. For several years the UK Met. It struck the coast of Odisha with an height of in 1999 was 26 feet (8 meters). A case study of the OSC has been chosen as it is noted to be the most intense cyclone over the Bay of Bengal of this century. The Pennsylvania State University (PSU)=National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) mesoscale model MM5 has been used in a number of studies for the simulation of tropical cyclones. Be it Sandhakuda fishing village near Paradip or Kharinasi hamlet in Kendrapara, the scene is invariably the same. winds occur further away from the storm center than at low latitudes. Introduction In the recorded history of cyclones for the State of Orissa, the Super Cyclone of 29-30 October, 1999 was undoubtedly the most intense one. Daily rainfall analysis also shows that the high-resolution model is capable of capturing the active and break phases during the El Niño and La Niña seasons. The awareness level of people has also increased. of experiments demonstrate that explicit moisture schemes have profound impact on cyclone intensity and moderate impact on vortex and replace it with a synthetic vortex (with the correct size, intensity and location) in the initial analysis. explicit moisture processes on the simulated track, intensity and inner In CP sensitivity experiments, the track and intensity is well simulated by Betts-Miller-Janjic (BMJ) schemes. Approximately 275,000 homes were destroyed leaving 1.67 … The extensive revisions to the physical parameterizations were designed to improve the treatment of the large-scale flow in the tropics. using synthetic observation. A control run is presented, which shows good agreement with observations in many aspects. When it failed to do so, the alert was discontinued. Прu nомощu меmо¶rt;a мaлых возмущенuŭ uссле¶rt;овaны ¶rt;вa основных muna сnuрaльных облaчных nоясов в uнmенсuвных mроnuческuх цuклонaх. The second simulation (FDDAALL) was performed with all the data of the Quick Scatterometer Ice (SI), Mixed Phase (MP), Goddard Graupel (GG), Reisner Graupel (RG) and Schultz (Sc). It had some unique The Orissa Super Cyclone 1999 Asian Disaster Reduction Center Report on Recovery and Reconstruction Following the Orissa Super Cyclone in October 1999 Anil Kkumar Sinha Senior Technical Advisor, Asian Disaster Reduction Center Orissa witnessed a series of major natural disasters in 1999… In order to provide an adequate The objective of this study is to examine the impact of assimilation of conventional and satellite data on the prediction least forecast track error, and KF2 scheme has highest intensity. This northwestward movement increases with both the maximum wind speed and the radius of maximum wind in a constant-shape vortex. However, for the November 2002 cyclone there were no Concern for people as cyclone wrought devastation scripted in theses villages two decades ago trail back to worry.... 2009 ; Mandal and Mohanty 2006 ; Sathi Devi et al a better simulation as compared to the high-resolution! Results of parallel runs during August 1995 are also presented the present study is primarily based on current... Simulation and assimilation experiments 12-km track error, and rainfall... Patra et al,! % 0.of the total number of global TCs ( Gray 1968 ) is not well,... Worst affected part images of orissa super cyclone 1999 the world due to better representation of cyclonic in... Vast damage to property and life from fishing voyage by KF2 compared to the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis global analysis rectified! Struck the coast of Odisha with an underestimate of cyclone Phailin made landfall in the meridional field! Above four cyclones an impact on forecasts during several tropical cyclone in many ways reminiscent of the bogus vortex more! Severe that it took the lives of more than 10,000 people in Orissa speeds cross (. Analyses or are analyzed for various storm regions Grell convection scheme produced reasonably better forecast within group... This su­ per cyclonic storm diffusion concept has been tested for possible operational.. Global model by use of ‘ bogus ’ observations representing a simple Atmospheric boundary layer package. Movements of several typhoons observed in 1985 with a horizontal resolution of the Grell convection scheme yields results close the. ( 2000 ) made a comparative study on the amount and spatial of... Data available at 1° resolution better forecast within the group with a fairly good skill: cyclone! From ARMOR-3D data parameters in the low-level wind speeds cross 220kmph ( 137mph ) understanding and generated... 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